Prognosis in advanced lung cancer – a prospective study examining key clinicopathological factors

Objectives: In patients with advanced incurable lung cancer deciding as to the most appropriate treatment (e.g. chemotherapy or supportive care only) is challenging. In such patients the TNM classification system has reached its ceiling therefore other factors are used to assess prognosis and as such, guide treatment. Performance status (PS), weight loss and inflammatory biomarkers (Glasgow Prognostic Score (mGPS)) predict survival in advanced lung cancer however these have not been compared. This study compares key prognostic factors in advanced lung cancer. Materials and methods: Patients with newly diagnosed advanced lung cancer were recruited and demographics, weight loss, other prognostic factors (mGPS, PS) were collected. Kaplan–Meier and Cox regression methods were used to compare these prognostic factors. Results: 390 patients with advanced incurable lung cancer were recruited; 341 were male, median age was 66 years (IQR 59–73) and patients had stage IV non-small cell (n = 288) (73.8%) or extensive stage small cell lung cancer (n = 102) (26.2%). The median survival was 7.8 months. On multivariate analysis only performance status (HR 1.74 CI 1.50–2.02) and mGPS (HR 1.67, CI 1.40–2.00) predicted survival (p < 0.001). Survival at 3 months ranged from 99% (ECOG 0–1) to 74% (ECOG 2) and using mGPS, from 99% (mGPS0) to 71% (mGPS2). In combination, survival ranged from 99% (mGPS 0, ECOG 0–1) to 33% (mGPS2, ECOG 3). Conclusion: Performance status and the mGPS are superior prognostic factors in advanced lung cancer. In combination, these improved survival prediction compared with either alon