The statistical significance of randomized controlled trial results is frequently fragile: a case for a Fragility Index

AbstractObjectivesA P-value <0.05 is one metric used to evaluate the results of a randomized controlled trial (RCT). We wondered how often statistically significant results in RCTs may be lost with small changes in the numbers of outcomes.Study Design and SettingA review of RCTs in high-impact medical journals that reported a statistically significant result for at least one dichotomous or time-to-event outcome in the abstract. In the group with the smallest number of events, we changed the status of patients without an event to an event until the P-value exceeded 0.05. We labeled this number the Fragility Index; smaller numbers indicated a more fragile result.ResultsThe 399 eligible trials had a median sample size of 682 patients (range: 15–112,604) and a median of 112 events (range: 8–5,142); 53% reported a P-value