Estudo de modelos de previsão tecnológica aplicados à substituição de embalagens de refrigerantes para o mercado brasileiro

ABSTRACTA study of technological forecast models applied to soft-drinks packaging substitution in the Brazilian marketGiven the continuous changes of the competitive arena generated by the frequent innovations in products and services in the marketplace, forecasting techniques have undoubtedly become a very important source of strategic decision-making support. This study analyzes the importance of the non-linear technological forecast models of Gompertz and the Fisher-Pry, based on the substitution of technologies and applied to the beverage packaging segment. The authors provide a review of the literature on the subject and then analyze the context of the studied segment, i.e., soft drinks, Brazil’s biggest beverage market and the world’s third ranking one. Using the methodology of quantitative analysis of the historical series of data of the relative share of the different packaging technologies, the authors identify the model with the best fit regarding the replacement of glass packaging, predominant at the beginning of the historical series, by PET packaging, the substitute technology, in the soft-drinks segment and provide an estimate up to 2010. Finally, an analysis correlating the models with the best fit and the particularities of the markets is also provided. The conclusion is that the models work well in terms of technological forecasting, provided the dynamics of substitution are properly understood, and that they aid decision-making that has an impact upon strategic actions