The Advantage of Late-comers: Analysis of Road Fatality Rates in the EU Member States

AbstractThe relationships between population, road fatalities, vehicle ownership and economic growth have been analyzed in many publications. Most research concluded that less developed countries show worse safety records than the more developed ones. This paper investigates, whether latecomers, i.e. countries which reach a certain level of development later than some others, can have safety benefits from being late.The scope of the study is covering the present 27 EU member states. The time period is from 1970 to 2010.In the more developed countries the decrease in the mortality rate gets slower over time. However, in the less developed countries there is still a bigger potential in road safety. The reasons behind the general positive trends in road safety are the continuous improvement in engineering solutions (better infrastructure, safer cars) as well as the road users who are better trained and skilled due to education and learning processes.It is shown that countries reaching a certain level of motorization later in time can improve their safety at a quicker pace. It is concluded that besides the factors mentioned above, the single market and the increased speed of the spreading of safety related information and knowledge are contributing to the decrease of the differences among European countries in their safety levels