On the relationship between hydro-meteorological patterns and flood types

SummaryFlood generation is triggered by the interaction of the hydrological pre-conditions and the meteorological conditions at different space–time scales. This interaction results in floods of diverse characteristics, e.g. spatial flood extent and temporal flood progression. While previous studies have either linked flood occurrence to weather patterns neglecting the hydrological pre-conditions or categorised floods according to their generating mechanisms into flood types, this study combines both approaches. Exemplary for the Elbe River basin, the influence of pre-event soil moisture as an indicator of hydrological pre-conditions, on the link between weather patterns and flood occurrence is investigated. Flood favouring soil moisture and weather patterns as well as their combined influence on flood occurrence are examined. Flood types are identified and linked to soil moisture and weather patterns. The results show that the flood favouring hydro-meteorological patterns vary between seasons and can be linked to flood types. The highest flood potential for long-rain floods is associated with a weather pattern that is often identified in the presence of so called ‘Vb’ cyclones. Rain-on-snow and snowmelt floods are associated with westerly and north-westerly wind directions. In the analysis period, 18% of weather patterns only caused flooding in case of preceding soil saturation. The presented concept is part of a paradigm shift from pure flood frequency analysis to a frequency analysis that bases itself on process understanding by describing flood occurrence and characteristics in dependence of hydro-meteorological patterns