Development of spatially explicit emission scenario from land-use change and biomass burning for the input data of climate projection

AbstractIn the preparatory phase of IPCC AR5 development, Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) have been constructed by Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) groups as new forcing scenarios used for climate modeling and earth system modeling groups. In the process of RCP 6.0 scenario development, which has been conducted by the Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM), we constructed a scenario of spatially explicit long-term aerosol emissions from biomass burning and net land-use change CO2 emissions in order to complement energy use and industrial emissions scenarios projected by socio-economic component of AIM.To estimate the emissions from biomass burning, we incorporate a vegetation fire component into the terrestrial biogeochemical process model VISIT (Vegetation Integrative SImulation Tool). For the net land-use change CO2 emission, we use gridded land-use change transition matrix data developed in the process of downscaling the RCP6.0 land use scenario for the evaluation of emission from deforestation (primary land and secondary land into cropland, pasture, and urban), and also the evaluation of regrowth absorption from abandonment of cropland and pasture. In this process, uncertainty of land emissions due to the effect of CO2 concentration and land-use scenario is examined, and reveals significant effect of CO2 fertilization effect on vegetation to the land emissions