Application of Neural Network Models in Modelling Economic Time Series with Non-constant Volatility

AbstractIn this paper, we investigate the volatility dynamics of EUR/GBP currency using statistical as well as the neural network approach which is an alternative way for time series modelling and forecasting in economics. The goal of this paper is to provide an alternative and reasonable way in modelling dynamic economic time series. We suggest an alternative approach for forecasting time series with non-constant volatility – we suggest and implement several neural network prediction models; we also use a large number of statistical models as well as different optimization techniques for artificial neural network. After discussing the basics of statistical volatility modelling and the basis of artificial neural networks we perform the experiment on real financial data. We quantify several ARCH and GARCH models; we also implement various RBF neural network prediction models. The comparative analysis of out-of-sample forecasts evaluated using MSE evaluation measures is performed. Finally, we state that suggested neural network models performed almost as good as the standard statistical models and are therefore reasonable and acceptable in economic modelling