The Application of Combination Forecasting Model in Energy Consumption System

AbstractIn view of the complexity and nonlinear characteristics of Chinese energy consumption system, this paper respectively makes use of neural network, grey forecast and time series to construct models depending on historical data of Chinese energy consumption. According to standard deviation method, suited weight is distributed to the prediction of each individual model, and a combination forecasting model is established. Finally, the combination model is applied to predict Chinese energy consumption in the following six years. The results show that Chinese energy consumption will be 4.21 billion tons of standard coal in the year of 2015