Exploring the use of seasonal climate forecasts in Europe through expert elicitation

AbstractThe importance of climate information for decision-making in sectors susceptible to climate variability and change is widely recognised. Advancements in climate science have led to an increased interest in seasonal climate forecasts (SCF) although in Europe very little is known about the practical use of these forecasts. To start filling this gap we conducted a workshop with experts in this subject area in order to elicit their knowledge and experiences regarding the current use of SCF in Europe.We found that although the use of SCF across Europe is fairly limited, particular sectors such as energy, water, insurance, and transport are taking the lead. The central role of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and National Meteorological Services as the main providers of SCF in Europe was also highlighted. Perceived barriers to their uptake tend to be associated with factors such as accessibility, relevance, and usability of SCF by the end-users.Some of our findings are consistent with other experiences outside Europe where the uptake of SCF for decision-making has a longer history. For example, the interaction between actors, the usability of the information provided, and the influence of institutional and social factors have all been noted as important aspects influencing the use of these forecasts in Europe. However, as these findings are based on experts’ knowledge further research with decision-makers and end-users is needed to better understand the use and potential benefits of SCF in Europe