Requirement based Future Product Cost Estimation using Lifecycle Assessment Data

AbstractA key advantage of Product Lifecycle Management implementation is the use of data, coming from all phases of a product, for the optimisation of future goods. The aim is not only to create more robust and efficient products but also to decrease engineering efforts including revisions. In order to determine the prospective economic efficiency and be able to estimate its influence on the product's lifecycle prior to the development of a new design, it is essential not only to anticipate revenues but to have liable information about expected costs. With most approaches, focus lies on the production expenses as they cause the significant share of total product costs. Engineering and development expenditures are in most cases not reliably to identify at project start, since too many factors of influence impede realistic predictions. Given methods typically premise the availability of accurate values as input parameters: extrapolation techniques often base upon BOM positions and other methods consider specific attributes of the future product, which are not definable at this point of time. To overcome this drawback, a new approach has been developed. This methodology is based on requirements and known technical parameters from which characteristic factors are derived that are merged to a dimensionless number, likewise the concept of similarity indicators. Assuming that products with a similar dimensionless number also cause similar development costs, databases from previous products can be set up and the factors assessed, allowing for a direct development cost comparison with future products. The approach has been evaluated in the civil aircraft industry under consideration of the main concept requirements, the so called Top Level Aircraft Requirements. A retrospective analysis of existing aircraft concerning development costs and their requirements provided the needed input to calculate the dimensionless number and to create reference values. Conventional as well as innovative aircraft have been researched to also allow an estimation of expenditures for bringing new technologies to market. Approach and evaluation are presented in detail and information about the software prototype that was integrated into a lifecycle assessment platform is given. It was developed in the 4-year term of a project funded by the German Universities Excellence Initiative