Prostate-specific Antigen Decline After 4 Weeks of Treatment with Abiraterone Acetate and Overall Survival in Patients with Metastatic Castration-resistant Prostate Cancer

AbstractBackgroundThe availability of multiple new treatments for metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC) mandates earlier treatment switches in the absence of a response. A decline in prostate-specific antigen (PSA) is widely used to monitor treatment response, but is not validated as an intermediate endpoint for overall survival (OS).ObjectiveTo evaluate the association between early PSA decline and OS following abiraterone acetate (AA) treatment.Design, setting, and participantsWe identified mCRPC patients treated with AA before or after docetaxel at the Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust between 2006 and 2014. Early PSA decline was defined as a 30% decrease in PSA at 4 wk relative to baseline, and early PSA rise as a 25% increase.Outcome measurements and statistical analysisAssociation with OS was analyzed using multivariate Cox regression and log-rank analyses. Spearman's rho correlation coefficient (r) was calculated to evaluate the association between PSA changes at 4 wk and 12 wk.Results and limitationsThere were 274 patients eligible for this analysis. A 30% PSA decline at 4 wk was associated with longer OS (25.8 vs 15.1 mo; hazard ratio [HR] 0.47, p<0.001), and a 25% PSA rise at 4 wk with shorter OS (15.1 vs 23.8 mo; HR 1.7, p=0.001) in both univariate and multivariable models. The percentage PSA decline at 4 wk was significantly correlated with the percentage PSA change at 12 wk (r=0.82; p