The Impact of the Structure of the Economy on the Evolution of Road Freight Transport: A Macro Analysis from an Input-output Approach

AbstractUnderstanding the link between transport and the economy has been of the greatest concern among researchers and practitioners. This research explores the impact of the economic restructuring processes in the aggregate road freight transport demand. We develop a simulation exercise of two alternative economic scenarios over the period 1999–2011 in Spain and the UK by means of an extended Input-Output model. This approach allows us to calculate the elasticity range of vehicles-km to GDP depending upon the types of economic activity developed in these countries and their dematerialization level. The results confirm that the transition to more service-oriented economies implies much lower transport requirements, as has been the case in the UK. Furthermore, the comparison of the two countries has contributed to highlight the importance of other set of non-economic variables, related to technological, logistics and modal factors in the definition of final road freight transport demand