Identification and ranking of important elements in a gas transmission network by using ProGasNet

Natural gas networks can be viewed as complex technical systems, which are exposed to various threats, for example technical failures, natural disasters and human/political uncertainties. As a consequence of these threats, a subset of network components might fail. In order to simulate energy supply consequences of these component failures/attacks, we have been developing the probabilistic gas network simulator ProGasNet. ProGasNet is able to model in a single computer model capacity and reliability constrains of a natural gas network. The physical model is based on graph theory (maximum flow algorithm), whereas component failures are simulated by the Monte-Carlo method. We propose an importance measure similar to those used in the PSAs for ranking components. Our contribution highlights a probabilistic security of supply application of importance measures in context of European gas transmission network infrastructure.JRC.C.3-Energy Security, Distribution and Market