Polarization and the growth of low-skill employment in Spanish Local Labor Markets

This paper analyses the long-term transformations of local labor markets in fifty Spanish provinces to identify the extent and the drivers of employment polarization. We find that the decline of ‘routine’ mid-skill jobs is strongly driven by technology adoption and, also, that it is a strong predictor of the expansion of low-skill service employment. These results are not specific to large metropolitan areas, and are robust to various controls and instrumental variables that account for long-term industry specialisation. We also find a positive, albeit small, local multiplier effect of high-skilled workers on the demand for non-tradable service jobs.JRC.B.4-Human Capital and Employmen