Projecting basin-scale distributed irrigation and domestic water demands and values: A generic method for large-scale modeling

This paper presents a methodology to project irrigation and domestic water demands on a regional to global scale, in terms of both quantity and economic value. Projections are distributed at the water basin scale. Irrigation water demand is projected under climate change. It is simply computed as the difference between crop potential evapotranspiration for the different stages of the growing season and available precipitation. Irrigation water economic value is based on a yield comparison approach between rainfed and irrigated crops using average yields. For the domestic sector, we project the combined effects of demographic growth, economic development and water cost evolution on future demands. The method consists in building three-part inverse demand functions in which volume limits of the blocks evolve with the level of GDP per capita. The value of water along the demand curve is determined from price-elasticity, price and demand data from the literature, using the point-expansion method, and from water cost data. This generic methodology can be easily applied to large-scale regions, in particular developing regions where reliable data are scarce. As an illustration, it is applied to Algeria, at the 2050 horizon, for demands associated to reservoirs. Our results show that domestic demand is projected to become a major water consumption sector. The methodology is meant to be integrated into large-scale hydroeconomic models, to determine inter-sectorial and inter-temporal water allocation based on economic valuation. (Résumé d'auteur