Modelling the Swedish residential and service sectors in TIMES: a feasibility study

This report presents a specification for how the Swedish residential and service sector (R&S sector) could be modeled using the TIMES modeling platform. The focus is on long-term scenario analysis, which serves two intended purposes. In explorative scenarios, it seeks to answer the question “What could happen?” By contrast, normative scenarios are more practical, asking “How can a given objective be reached?” Ultimately, the objective is to identify the least-cost ways of achieving policy objectives. In light of how energy demand is evolving, model requirements for analysis of urban energy systems and decentralized energy generation are also discussed, but more briefly. In conclusion, it is possible to improve the way the R&S sector is represented and modeled in integrated energy systems models such as TIMES Sweden. There is a suite of data sources still untapped, and the body of knowledge and experience from this type of energy analysis has improved the understanding of how such modeling can best be done. This report presents a proposal that could significantly improve the ability analyze the R&S sector itself, and interaction between the built environment and other sectors. Ultimately, that would result in a better understanding of the energy system and in more robust advice to policy makers.Godkänd; 2014; 20141210 (kroann)