The inherently nonlinear dynamics of two surfaces as they are driven past each other, a phenomenon known as dry friction, has yet to be fully understood on an atomistic level. New experiments on colloidal monolayers forced over laser-generated substrates now offer the opportunity to investigate friction with single-particle resolution. Here, we use analytical theory and computer simulations to study the effect of thermal fluctuations on the stick-slip mechanism characteristic for the frictional response of a stiff colloidal monolayer on a commensurate substrate. By performing a harmonic expansion of the energy and employing elementary statistical mechanics, we map the motion of the monolayer onto a simple differential equation. Analytical e...