Parapatric species and the implications of climate change: a case study on hares in Europe

Resumen del póster presentado al XXXth International Union of Game Biologists and Perdix XIII, celebrados en Barcelona (España) del 5 al 9 de septiembre de 2011.Parapatry is a biogeographic term used to refer to organisms whose ranges do not overlap but are immediately adjacent to each other; they only co-occur – if at all – in a narrow contact zone. Often there are no environmental barriers in the contact zones, so competitive interaction is advocated as the factor that modulates species distribution ranges. Even when the effects of climate change (CC) on species’ distribution have been widely studied, there are few studies aimed in exploring CC effects on the biogeographical relationships between closely related – parapatric – species. We modelled the environmental favourability for Lepus granatensis, L. europaeus and L. timidus in Europe using variables related to climate, topography, human disturbance and land use, and projected the models to future according IPCC scenarios. Favourabilities for present and future scenarios were combined using fuzzy logic in order to i) quantify the CC effects on species distribution, ii) determine the biogeographical relationships between species in parapatry, and iii) assess the CC effects on these relationships. Results showed different responses to CC. Whereas L. granatensis demonstrated the highest forecasted expansion, minor increments and contractions were obtained for L. europaeus and L. timidus, respectively. L. granatensis showed higher favourability values than L. europaeus in their contact area. This suggests that L. granatensis may have some advantages over L. europaeus if competitive relationships were established, and this situation is expected to exacerbate under CC scenarios. Whereas favourabilities for L. europaeus and L. timidus are similar in the contact area, mean favourability for L. europaeus is predicted to increases under CC scenarios, which may comprimise the co-existence with the L. timidus.Peer reviewe