Evaluation of the risk of classical swine fever (CSF) spread from backyard pigs to other domestic pigs by using the spatial stochastic disease spread model Be-FAST: The example of Bulgaria

The study presented here is one of the very first aimed at exploring the potential spread of classical swine fever (CSF) from backyard pigs to other domestic pigs. Specifically, we used a spatial stochastic spread model, called Be-FAST, to evaluate the potential spread of CSF virus (CSFV) in Bulgaria, which holds a large number of backyards (96% of the total number of pig farms) and is one of the very few countries for which backyard pigs and farm counts are available. The model revealed that, despite backyard pigs being very likely to become infected, infections from backyard pigs to other domestic pigs were rare. In general, the magnitude and duration of the CSF simulated epidemics were small, with a median [95% PI] number of infected farms per epidemic of 1 [1,4] and a median [95% PI] duration of the epidemic of 44 [17,101] days. CSFV transmission occurs primarily (81.16%) due to indirect contacts (i.e. vehicles, people and local spread) whereas detection of infected premises was mainly (69%) associated with the observation of clinical signs on farm rather than with implementation of tracing or zoning. Methods and results of this study may support the implementation of risk-based strategies more cost-effectively to prevent, control and, ultimately, eradicate CSF from Bulgaria. The model may also be easily adapted to other countries in which the backyard system is predominant. It can also be used to simulate other similar diseases such as African swine fever.The authors would like to acknowledge the provision of data and support of the Bulgarian Food Safety Agency. This work has been funded by the European Project CSFV_goDIVA (KBBE-227003), the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation under projects MTM2008-04621, MTM2011-22658; the “Comunidad de Madrid” and “European Social Fund” through project S2009/PPQ-1551. Beatriz Martínez-López currently holds a Juan de la Cierva contract (JCI-2011-10724). A.M. Ramos has also been funded by “Fundación Caja Madrid”.Peer reviewe