A free-form prediction for the reappearance of supernova Refsdal in the Hubble Frontier Fields cluster MACSJ1149.5+2223

The massive cluster MACSJ1149.5+2223(z = 0.544) displays five very large lensed images of a well-resolved spiral galaxy at z = 1.491. It is within one of these images that the first example of a multiply lensed supernova (SN) has been detected recently as part of the Grism Lens-Amplified Survey from Space. The depth of this data also reveals many H II regions within the lensed spiral galaxy which we identify between the five counter-images. Here, we expand the capability of our free-form method to incorporate these H II regions locally, with other reliable lensed galaxies added for a global solution. This improved accuracy allows us to estimate when the Refsdal SN will appear within the other lensed images of the spiral galaxy to an accuracy of ~7 per cent. We predict this SN will reappear in one of the counter-images (RA = 11:49:36.025, Dec. = +22:23:48.11, J2000) and on 2015 November 1 (with an estimated error of ±25 d) it will be at the same phase as it was when it was originally discovered, offering a unique opportunity to study the early phases of this SN and to examine the consistency of the mass model and the cosmological model that have an impact on the time delay prediction.JMD acknowledges support of the consolider project CSD2010-00064 and AYA2012-39475-C02-01 funded by the Ministerio de Economia y Competitividad. AZ was provided by NASA through Hubble Fellowship grant #HST-HF2-51334.001-A awarded by STScI.Peer Reviewe