Spatially explicit modelling of Mediterranean mixed forest: combining species distribution models and land cover change simulations

Comunicación presentada en la EUROGEO Annual Meeting and Conference (Geographic Information: for a better world), celebrada en Málaga el 29 y 30 de septiembre de 2016.Over the past twenty years, Species Distribution Models (SDM) have become commonplace for scientists interested in spatial predictions for studies of biogeography, ecology, and conservation biology. Species distribution models (also known under other names including Habitat Suitability Modelling) are empirical models that relate species field observations to environmental factors based on ecological concepts of niche theory by using statistical and static models. Land use/cover change (LUCC) modelling is a dynamic approach to analyse a spatially explicit change from an initial time to a later time by combining land cover transition models and driver variables based on multiple-criteria decision analysis. This paper presents an integrated forest cover change model that combine SDM for habitat-suitability modelling and LUUC models to simulate future forest cover changes. “Los Alcornocales” Natural Park (Southern Spain), considered one of the largest mixed forests dominated by cork oak within the Mediterranean Basin was selected as the study area. Our results revealed the synergies between both approaches.Peer reviewe