Do Volatile Voters Vote Less Correctly? An Analysis of Correct Voting Among Switchers in U.S. Presidential Election Campaigns

Are campaign-switchers voting less correctly than stable voters? A rich literature has already investigated the characteristics of voters who switch parties, focusing on levels of political involvement and political sophistication of volatile voters. The findings of this body of literature are rather mixed. In this paper, we argue that in order to gain insights in the quality of the party choice of volatile voters, we should not focus on individual-level characteristics of these voters, but investigate the quality of their choices more directly. We build on previous work on correct voting and investigate the extent to which stable and volatile voters choose the correct party. Our analyses of campaign-switching in American national elections show that those who switch parties are significantly less likely to vote for the correct party. Importantly, this basic pattern holds over time and regardless of how cognitively mobilized the volatile voters are.status: publishe