Petro Poroshenko is likely to win the Ukrainian presidential election and crucially could hold support in all four core geographical regions in the country

Ukraine is due to hold the first round of voting in its presidential elections on 25 May. Max Bader assesses the main candidates in the election, the likely result based on opinion polling, and what the outcome might mean for the wider Ukraine crisis. He notes that there is very little doubt about who will win the contest, with Petro Poroshenko currently polling substantially higher levels of support than any of the nearest challengers, including in the country’s eastern and southern regions. However while this provides some hope that the election could help de-escalate tensions within Ukraine; the lack of participation of voters in Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk could potentially undermine the legitimacy of the result