Building systems-based scenario narratives for novel biodiversity futures in an agricultural landscape

Improving biodiversity futures requires a systems-based appreciation of the dynamic human and bio-physical interactions shaping landscapes. By combining a structured approach to identifying key driversof change on biodiversity with a collaborative approach to scenario planning, biodiversity planners andmanagers can work with stakeholders to identify a range of possible futures and explore their impli-cations. This paper presents an approach to developing scenario narratives constructed against keydrivers of change identified through a social–ecological systems analysis. The approach facilitated theintegration of stakeholder and expert input to inform system dynamics affecting biodiversity outcomes,helping to direct and discipline the collective imagination, and to challenge assumptions and reveal newopportunities and strategies. Examples are provided to show how conventional notions about preser-ving biodiversity remnants “as is” were not a good fit for the diverse range of futures imagined, and thatrestoration ecology would have to expand to incorporate ideas of landscape fluidity and novel ecosys-tems. Aspects of the scenario narratives highlighted the need for new conservation strategies for theendangered native grassland ecological community within the Tasmanian Midlands case study, and are-focusing on new locations across that landscape