Requirement and supply projections for dentists

Aim of the study. To prepare requirement and supply projections for dentists in Lithuania for the next decade. Objectives. 1) To evaluate the changes in number and distribution of dentists in Lithuania in 1993-2004; 2) To evaluate the drop out from undergraduate studies of students of the Faculty of Odontology of Kaunas University of Medicine; 3) To evaluate the retention in profession of dental graduates of Faculty of Odontology of Kaunas University of Medicine; 4) To determine the requirement for dentists until 2015; 5) To forecast supply of dentists for the next decade. Methods. While estimating the number and distribution of dentists in Lithuania the data of Lithuanian Health Information Centre were analyzed. While estimating the distribution of dentists by age and gender in Lithuania the data of Health Care and Pharmacy Professionals Licence Registry were analyzed. While estimating the drop out from undergraduate studies and retention in the profession, cohort analysis of the matriculates of Faculty of Odontology of Kaunas University of Medicine was carried out. The requirement for dentists was evaluated by carrying out the Delphi survey. Supply of dentists was projected using computer simulation model by J. Dewdney. Results. In 1993-2004 the number of dentists per 10 thousand population increased from 5.3 to 6.6 in Lithuania. There were 2272 dentists in Lithuania in 2004. Only one third of them were working in districts, all the rest were located in cities. In 2002 general dental practitioners constituted almost 80 percent of all dentists. 95.8 percent (69 total) of students have finished their studies during the period 1995-2000. More than 90 percent (90.7 percent of men and 90.8 of women) of Faculty of Odontology graduates held licenses. Part of them had more than one license: the second license was held by 38 dentists (6.7 percent). According to the results of the Delphi survey, the requirement for public health specialists is 7.3 per 10 thousand population until 2015. Supply of dentists until 2015 would increase and would reach 6.76 per 10 thousand population but would not exceed the requirement. Conclusion. 1. The number of dentists per 10 thousand population increased in Lithuania in 1993-2004. During this period the unequal distribution of dentists by geographic regions and specialties was observed; the largest part of dentists was women. 2) About four (4.2) percent of students dropped out from undergraduate studies at the Faculty of Odontology of Kaunas University of Medicine in 1995-2000. 3) Almost every tenth (9.2 percent) dental graduate of Faculty of Odontology of Kaunas University of Medicine dropped out from profession. 4) The requirement for dentists by 2015 is 7.3 per 10 thousand population. 5) Supply of dentists until 2015 would increase but would not exceed the requirement