Acknowledgements The work of CDJ, JAL, AW was supported by the Joint UK DECC/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA01101). CDJ, JAL, AW, PF, EK, DvV are supported by the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 641816 (CRESCENDO). GPP was supported by the Norwegian Research Council (project 209701). PC acknowledges support from the European Research Council Synergy grant ERC-2013-SyG-610028 IMBALANCE-P. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme's Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modeling groups (listed in Table 1 of this paper) for producing and making available their model output. For CMIP the U.S. Department o...