Enabling security and risk-based operation of container line supply chains under high uncertainties

Container supply chains are vulnerable to many risks. Vulnerability can be defined as an exposure to serious disturbances arising from the risks within the supply chain as well as the risks external to the supply chain. Vulnerability can also be defined as exposure to serious disturbances arising from a hazard or a threat. Containers are one of the major sources of security concerns and have been used, for example, to smuggle illegal immigrants, weapons, and drugs. The consequences of the use of a weapon of mass destruction or discovery of such a device in a container are serious. Estimates suggest that a weapon of mass destruction explosion and the resulting port closure could cost billions of dollars. The annual cost of container losses as consequences of serious disturbances arising from hazards is estimated as $500 million per year. The literature review, historical failure data, and statistical analysis in the context of containerships' accidents from a safety point of view clearly indicate that the container cargo damage, machinery failure, collision, grounding, fire/explosion, and contact are the most significant accident categories with high percentages of occurrences. Another important finding from the literature review is that the most significant basic event contributing to the supply chains' vulnerability is human error. Therefore, firstly, this research makes full use of the Evidential Reasoning (ER) advantages and further develops and extends the Fuzzy Evidential Reasoning (FER) by exploiting a conceptual and sound methodology for the assessment of a seafarer's reliability. Accordingly, control options to enhance seafarers' reliability are suggested. The proposed methodology enables and facilitates the decision makers to measure the reliability of a seafarer before his/her designation to any activities and during his/her seafaring period. Secondly, this research makes full use of the Bayesian Networks (BNs) advantages and further develops and extends the Fuzzy Bayesian Networks (FBNs) and a "symmetric method" by exploiting a conceptual and sound methodology for the assessment of human reliability. Furthermore a FBN model (i. e. dependency network), which is capable of illustrating the dependency among the variables, is constructed. By exploiting the proposed FBN model, a general equation for the reduction of human reliability attributable to a person's continuous hours of wakefulness, acute sleep loss and cumulative sleep debt is formulated and tested.A container supply chain includes dozens of stakeholders who can physically come into contact with containers and their contents and are potentially related with the container trade and transportation. Security-based disruptions can occur at various points along the supply chain. Experience has shown that a limited percentage of inspection, coupled with a targeted approach based on risk analysis, can provide an acceptable security level. Thus, in order not to hamper the logistics process in an intolerable manner, the number of physical checks should be chosen cautiously. Thirdly, a conceptual and sound methodology (i. e. FBN model) for evaluating a container's security score, based on the importer security filling, shipping documents, ocean or sea carriers' reliability, and the security scores of various commercial operators and premises, is developed. Accordingly, control options to avoid unnecessary delays and security scanning are suggested. Finally, a decision making model for assessing the security level of a port associated with ship/port interface and based on the security score of the ship's cargo containers, is developed. It is further suggested that regardless of scanning all import cargo containers, one realistic way to secure the supply chain, due to lack of information and number of variables, is to enhance the ocean or sea carriers' reliability through enhancing their ship staff's reliability. Accordingly a decision making model to analyse the cost and benefit (i.e. CBA) is developed