Opportunity Based Model to Estimate the Economic Impact of Penguin Island Closures on the South African Small Pelagic Fishing Industry

Suggested Bibliographic Reference: Challenging New Frontiers in the Global Seafood Sector: Proceedings of the Eighteenth Biennial Conference of the International Institute of Fisheries Economics and Trade, July 11-15, 2016. Compiled by Stefani J. Evers and Ann L. Shriver. International Institute of Fisheries Economics and Trade (IIFET), Corvallis, 2016.Proceedings of the Eighteenth Biennial Conference of the International Institute of Fisheries Economics and Trade, held July 11-15, 2016 at Aberdeen Exhibition and Conference Center (AECC), Aberdeen, Scotland, UK.The experimental determination of the impact of small pelagic purse seine fishing on the iconic African penguin was initiated by the South African Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries in 2008. This has involved the plurennial closure of a 20 km radius area around four penguin breeding islands, alternating pairs according to an experimental design. Such an experiment could have substantial cost implications for the local small pelagic fishing industry. To estimate the future economic impacts of the closures we developed an opportunity based simulation modelling (OBM). The OBM model reviews the set by set history of the fishery back to 1987, and estimates whether and to what extent catches that were made in island protection areas can be replaced by hypothetical catches taken elsewhere on the same day. A separate GLM analyses is used to estimate the increase in catching costs due to the islands closures. The essential results from this study are (a) the percentage of the catch landed within the island protection area which can be replaced by other opportunities available on the same day and within reasonable proximity, and (b) the reduced catch rates as catch per set when fishing in waters adjacent to the penguin protection areas. Our estimates suggest that between about 10% and 25% of the historical catch within the protection area cannot be replaced by exploiting alternative opportunities. The long term economic impact is quite substantial especially around Robben and Dassen Islands which are at the epicentre of the anchovy fishery