The Annual Rate of Independent Events for the analysis of the extreme wind speed

The statistical modeling of the extreme mean wind speed is a very controversial subject. Several models are currently being applied in the literature, based on different assumptions and supplying quite different results. This paper takes a step back towards the common root of many extreme value models: the Annual Rate of Independent Events (ARIE). Starting from an analysis of large datasets of synthetic wind observations, the ARIE is inspected from a new point of view and some features so far hidden are brought to light. Based on that, a new effective approach to model the distribution of the extreme mean wind speed is proposed. The reliability of the proposed model is discussed processing both large datasets of synthetic wind observations, and small-sized datasets representative of real conditions. ARIE sensitivity to uncertainties in the parent distribution is also evaluated and critically discussed