Linear and nonlinear Granger causality between short-term and long-term interest rates: a rolling-window strategy

International audienceIn this paper, a rolling window strategy is employed to detect the linear and nonlinear Granger causality relationships between the U.S. federal funds rate and the 10-year government bond rate, during different time horizons, investigating whether these causalities change with the passing of time. For linear Granger causality tests, we apply the Toda-Yamamoto (1995) approach and for nonlinear ones we use a nonlinear Granger causality test introduced by Diks and Panchenko (2006). Our findings show that during nearly all time periods there is a significant two-way Granger causality relationship between these two interest rates