Rising Educational Levels Contribute to Compression of Morbidity. A Multi-State Life Table Analysis of

Objective: This paper assesses whether the future rise in educational levels of the elderly may not only increase life expectancy (LE) but also at the same time contribute to a reduction in life expectancy with disability (LED). Methods: For each educational level, LE and LED were estimated from multi-state life tables with a ‘disabled ’ and ‘non-disabled ’ state. Basic transition rates were estimated from regression analysis of data of a Dutch longitudinal study. The results per educational level were aggregated to the total population for the years 1995, 2005 and 2015. Results: In 1995, men in the highest educational level had a 0.9 years longer LE and a 5.4 years shorter LED than men in the lowest level. Differences among women were larger (2.0 and 8.3 years). Due to rising educational levels between 1995 and 2015, LE for the total male population would increase by 0.2 years while LED would decrease by 0.5 years. A larger effect was observed for women (0.2 and 1.5 years). 78 Conclusion: Rising educational levels of the elderly are likely to contribute to a compression of morbidity over the next decades, especially among women