Real-time Data Assimilation of Satellite Derived Ice Concentration into the Arctic Cap Nowcast/Forecast

Abstract- Over the last decade, ice conditions in the Arctic have changed dramatically resulting in the Arctic having a minimum in ice extent during the summers of 2007, 2008 and 2010. With this rapidly changing polar environment, the need for accurate ice forecasts is essential. The Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) has developed the Arctic Cap Nowcast/Forecast System (ACNFS), a two-way coupled ice/ocean system, to forecast ice conditions in the polar regions. This system applies the Los Alamos Community Ice CodE (CICE) coupled via the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF) to the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM). The Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation (NCODA), a 3-Dimensional VARiational analysis (3DVAR) scheme, is used to assimilate ice and ocean observations into the forecast system. Ice concentration data from two sources: the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) and the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for Earth Observation System (AMSR-E) are used as observations for the ice analysis. Results from the coupled system using both concentration input datasets will be discussed