Democratizing for Peace? The Effect of Democratization on Civil Conflits. mimeo

This paper tests the hypothesis that democratization reduces conflict. Estimates based on a differences-in-differences design using data from the Third Wave of De-mocratization suggest that democratization has no effect on conflicts when including external interventions and conflicts for territories, but significantly and persistently reduces internal civil conflict about the control of the government. The effect sets in after democratization and appears to be persistent. The democratization scenario in terms of violence during the transition also has a significant effect on subsequent conflict for government