Toward an understanding of rally effects: Public opinion

Abstract Although research has been conducted to document the effect of international events on the popularity of the presi-dent, little work has been done to examine the scope of such effects. This analysis of rally forces during the Persian Gulf War shows significant changes in the following attitudes: positive eval-uations of George Bush's and the U.S. Congress's performance, trust in the federal government, assessments of personal finances, and expectations for the economy. Most of these attitudes return to preconflict levels within 10 months. Few doubt that Americans coalesce behind their leaders in times of international crises, but a question arises about the extent and nature of such rally effects. This analysis contributes to the continuing schol-arly debate over the meaning of rally events by suggesting an alterna-tive conceptualization that views the effects of such exogenous shocks (e.g., wars) as extending beyond the popularity ratings of presidents— the dominant focus of most research on rally effects (e.g., Brody and Shapiro 1989, 1991; Mueller 1970, 1973, 1993). My conceptualization emphasizes an important quality of rally events that has heretofore received no attention: Rally events invoke feelings of allegiance toward national political institutions and policies. The term allegiance implies "a unity with the 'central ' values, the political processes, the moral integrity of the political system, a loyalty to and support of the going order " (Lane 1962, p. 162). This conceptualization differs from that proposed by other scholars. For example, John Mueller (1970, 1973) conceptualizes rallies as re-flections of Americans patriotically drawing together during times of SUZANNE L. PARKER is director of the Survey Research Laboratory and assistant profes