UNCLASSIFIED/UNLIMITED UNCLASSIFIED/UNLIMITED Sense Making: Biases and Support Solutions

Analysts base their hypotheses concerning terrorist groups and terrorist attacks generally on large amounts of information, which may be uncertain, inconsistent and/or incomplete. The present paper addresses the questions of how an analyst constructs a causal scenario, which biases occur and how this intelligence process can be supported. In the first part a model is presented that describes the subsequent steps in the analysis process. Several biases may negatively affect the quality of the analysis process. These are described in the second part of the paper. Subsequently, an experiment is described in which we manipulated the presentation of information: in a time line, a relation scheme or unstructured. In general, the results show that people generate fewer motives in the unstructured task condition and that expectations increase probability assessment of related hypotheses. The last part of the paper presents support concepts which aid analysts to critically think about their own analysis: To what extent is a hypothesis anchored in the data at hand, how to explain data not in line with the hypothesis and which other hypotheses would be possible as well? Supporting analysts in critical thinking not only improves situation awareness and decision making, but allows for better communication with others as well. Intelligence services are more often confronted with mistakes such as the use of unsubstantial evidence