One Risk Assessment Tool for Cardiovascular Disease, Type 2 Diabetes, and Chronic Kidney Disease

OBJECTIVE dIndividuals at high risk for chronic cardiometabolic disease (cardiovascular disease [CVD], type 2 diabetes, and chronic kidney disease [CKD]) share many risk factors and would benefit from early intervention. We developed a nonlaboratory-based risk-assessment tool for identification of people at high cardiometabolic disease risk. RESEARCH DESIGN ANDMETHODSdData of three population-based cohorts from different regions of the Netherlands were merged. Participants were 2,840 men and 3,940 women, white, aged 28–85 years, free from CVD, type 2 diabetes, and CKD diagnosis at baseline. The outcome was developing cardiometabolic disease during 7 years follow-up. RESULTSdAge, BMI, waist circumference, antihypertensive treatment, smoking, family his-tory of myocardial infarction or stroke, and family history of diabetes were significant predictors, whereas former smoking, history of gestational diabetes, and use of lipid-lowering medication were not. The models showed acceptable calibration (Hosmer and Lemeshow statistics, P. 0.05) and discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic [ROC] curve 0.82 [95 % CI 0.81–0.83] for women and 0.80 [0.78–0.82] for men). Discrimination of individual outcomes was lowest for diabetes (area under the ROC curve 0.70 for men and 0.73 for women