International Workshop on Next Generation Nautical Traffic Models 2014, Wuhan, China

Abstract—To predict vessel traffic operations and improve safety and capacity in ports and inland waterways, a new maritime traffic model is developed. In this model, vessel behavior is categorized into a tactical level (route choice) and an operational level (the dynamics of the vessel behavior). This new maritime traffic model comprises two parts: the route choice model resulting in the vessel’s preferred route, and the operational model describing the maneuvering behavior including interactions between vessels. This paper presents the vessel route choice model, which is based on disutility or cost minimization. The cost is determined by characteristics of the infrastructure, such as sailing time and distance to the bank. It is assumed that the bridge team will try to follow a preferred route that minimizes the cost to the destination. To calculate this preferred route to a certain destination, the so-called value function is defined as the minimum disutility function in continuous time and space. Subsequently, the value function is solved using dynamic programming and a numerical solution approach. In this paper, Automatic Identification System (AIS) data of unhindered vessel behavior in the Port of Rotterdam, the Netherlands, are used for the calibration of the route choice model in four directions, as well as validation. These results could be used to improve vessel traffic management and provide a basis for predicting vessel behavior at operational level. I