Exploration of water management adaptation strategies in the context of climatic changes in the Alps using a modelling tool

ABSTRACT: In the Alps, various studies conclude to a significant temperatures increase and a less clear signal for precipitation. Nevertheless, more solid precipitation is expected to become liquid due to the winter temperatures increase. As a result, hydrological regimes of mountainous territories are evolving. Business Models directly or indirectly linked with water availability will be then impacted by the hydrosystem evolution (e.g. drinking water, hydroelectricity, agriculture, industries, tourisme, etc.). Alpine regions should care about future water availability, i.e. to adapt in order to prevent water uses conflicts and to sustain its socio-economy. To help the Alpine community to face these issues, we improved hydro-meteorological models by coupling them with water resources management and socio-economic modules to explore different development strategies and to evaluate their effect on the water resources in the context of climatic changes. This works is funded by the Alpine Space C3-Alps project1. To explore adaptation strategies to climatic changes in the water management sector, both climatic and socio-economic dimensions have to be represented as they are key drivers of the water resources sustainable use. A first model combining socio-economic and climatic scenarios was built for the Megève ski resort (France). Hydrological processes are represented as well as anthropogenic withdrawals. Effect of different climatic scenarios and anthropogenic activities on the water resources availability can be quantified. The model is used to help decision makers when designing reasonable development strategies taking into account future climates and human policies