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7 Abstract Despite the regularity of disasters, social science has only begun to generate 8 replicable knowledge about the factors which facilitate post-crisis recovery. Building on 9 the broad variation in recovery rates within disaster-affected cities, I investigate the ability 10 of Kobe’s nine wards to repopulate after the 1995 Kobe earthquake in Japan. This article 11 uses case studies of neighborhoods in Kobe alongside new time-series, cross-sectional data 12 set to test five variables thought to influence recovery along with the relatively untested 13 factor of social capital. Controlling for damage, population density, economic conditions, 14 inequality and other variables thought important in past research, social capital proves to 15 be the strongest and most robust predictor of population recovery after catastrophe. This 16 has important implications both for public policies focused on reconstruction and for social 17 science more generally. 18 Keywords Kobe earthquake Population recovery Social capital Disaster Resilienc