Mutation and cancer: A model for human carcinogenesis

ABSTRACT-A model for carcinogenesis is presented that pro-vides a framework for understanding the roles of "spontaneous" events, hereditary factors, and environmental agents in human carcinogenesis and for interpreting experimental carcinogenesis. This model incorporates two features: a) transition of target stem cells into cancer cells via an intermediate stage in two irreversible steps, and b) growth and differentiation of normal target and intermediate cells. Cast in mathematical terms, the model can be fitted to age-specific incidence data on human cancers of both children and adults and can illuminate the relative importance of agents that affect transition rates, tissue growth, and tissue differentiation. This is illustrated by application of the model to a) the epidemiology of lung cancer with emphasis on the role of cigarette smoking and b) the epidemiology of breast cancer with emphasis on the roles of hormones, radiation, and heredity. Th