Determinants of Chicago Neighborhood Homicide Trajectories: 1965-1995

The homicide rate in Chicago nearly tripled between 1965 and 1992 and subsequently declined by more than 50 % through 2005. However, is this trend representative of all areas in the city? Drawing on the social disorganization and concentrated disadvantage perspectives, this article uses semiparametric group-based trajectory modeling to examine homicide trajectories in Chicago neighborhoods from 1965 to 1995. Significant variability is found in homicide trajectories across neighborhoods. Multivariate results show that disadvantage increases the likelihood of having an increasing or persistently high homicide trajectory. Social disorganization and family disruption are also predictive of variation in homicide trajectories but only in communities with already low levels of homicide. Other theoretically relevant predictors are evaluated, and suggestions for theoretical refinement and future research are discussed. Keywords homicide, trajectories, neighborhoods, trends, disadvantage One of the most important social changes in the United States during the 1980s and 1990s was the dramatic increase and subsequent decrease in crime, particularly vio-lent crime, in large cities. Perhaps nowhere was this more controversial and publicized than New York City, but the changes in Chicago were similarly dramatic. Indeed, the homicide rate in Chicago nearly tripled between 1965 and 1992, after which it declined by more than 50 % through 2005. This is a remarkable pattern of change, but is this trend representative of all areas in the city? If not, what other trends in homicide ca