Technological forecasting of supercomputer development: The March to Exascale computing

Advances in supercomputers have come at a steady pace over the past 20 years. The next milestone is to build an Exascale computer however this requires not only speed improvement but also significant enhancements for energy efficiency and massive parallelism. This paper examines technological progress of supercomputer development to identify the innovative potential of three leading technology paths toward Exascale development: hybrid system, multicore system and manycore system. Performance measurement and rate of change calculation were made by technology forecasting using data envelopment analysis (TFDEA.) The results indicate that the current level of technology and rate of progress can achieve Exascale performance between early 2021 and late 2022 as either hybrid systems or manycore systems.clos