When the World Outside Gets Inside Your Head: The Effects of Media Context on Perceptions of Public Opinion

Citizens are variably influenced by information flow depending on their location within a social structure. One method of understanding this influence is through an assessment of multiple levels of analysis. Although many scholars have called for such analyses, few have heeded that call. This research addresses the relevance of “context ” to the study of media effects on perceptions of public opinion. Survey data from the American National Election Studies are combined with a content analysis of campaign news in 24 regional newspapers, as well as advertising data, in order to parse out contextual media effects. Results show that perceived public opinion varies significantly across media markets. Newspaper use and personal candidate preference had a significant effect on the likelihood of perceiving Kerry to be the state-winning candidate. There was also a significant cross-level interaction between media context and political discussion on perceptions of public opinion. Keywords multilevel modeling, media effects, public opinion, social reality In the early 20th century, Walter Lippmann’s treatise on the “world outside and the pictures i