Impact assessment of inhabitants on the economic potential of energy efficient refurbishment by means of a novel socio-technical multi-agent simulation

Purpose / Context – Studies of building design and economic feasibility for energy-efficient refurbishments often utilise average temperatures for the heated space in a dwelling. As even small deviations have a significant impact on the resulting energy demand, an occupant-centred simulation is necessary for more precise evaluations and recommendations. Methodology / Approach – An Agent-based model (ABM) with only two agent types was derived. On the one hand, the technical view is included by means of a building agent that resembles a multiroom building. On the other hand, individual inhabitant agents are able to interact with the building agent to make sure they feel comfortable with resulting climate conditions in the rooms they occupy. To model realistic behaviour, inhabitant agents are negotiating about temperature setpoints and change e.g. their level of clothing if necessary. Results – It is possible to derive realistic demand situations from different types of household under consideration. Both resulting temperature levels and heat demand differ significantly from one household composition to the other. The insulation level of the building has an impact on these figures which has to be analysed in detail. Key Findings / Implications – In fact, the reference temperatures given in current technical standards do not reflect the behaviour of occupants. Therefore, the potential for energy demand reductions and corresponding economic feasibility have to be considered on a more individual per-household basis. Originality – The proposed agent model was designed from scratch and closes the gap between technical and social view in an integrated socio-technical perspective