Kostenoptimale Entwicklungsperspektiven des Raumheizungssektors im Energieversorgungssystem der Bundesrepublik Deutschland

Development and market penetration of new energy supply technologies become under the conditions of increasing oil scarcity and cost-effectiveness of more and more vital concern to most industrialized societies. An essential prerequesite of a sensible energy technology policy is the assessment of the different technical processes of energy supply and utilization with respect to their economic suitability, security of supply and environmental neutrality. It has been tried to make a contribution here using a dynamized linear optimization model of the FRG's energy supply. Among the various forms of energy utilization the main interest with the model formulation is put on the space heating sector. On the supply side electricity and heat production and coal conversion are the most important sectors. The model results show a clear and stable tendency towards district heating and gas utilization for space heating.Within the primary energy supply the crude oil consumption is stabilized even with an rather modest rate of energy price increases. Besides a certain expansion of the natural gas sector the growth of energy demand is predominantly met by coal and nuclear energy