Future Scenarios: Implications for Port Planning

The evolving function of a port, and the many logistical, technological and economic uncertainties under which it must operate, make the planning and design of these complex socio-technical infrastructures very challenging. A Master Plan of a port is the instrument by which the port’s (expansion) strategy in the market place is defined. Therefore, a Port Master Plan needs to be dynamic and responsive to all external developments during its lifetime. The existing Master Planning approach is static and as a result it is poorly equipped to deal with the many uncertainties in the port and shipping industry. A new approach is required. The paper proposes an adaptive approach to planning that combines elements of Assumption-Based Planning (ABP), developed in the early 1990’s, and Adaptive Policy Making (APM) developed in 2001. It identifies in a structured way, the uncertainty in an existing plan and subsequently improves its robustness and adaptability, through taking actions, either in the planning stage, or by preparing actions in advance that can be taken if an uncertain future materializes. The paper illustrates this approach by applying it to the current plan for Maasvlakte 2, the ongoing port expansion of Rotterdam in the Netherlands. The value of this proactive and dynamic approach lies in its manner of dealing with uncertainties. It leads planners to recognize vulnerabilities in a plan and incorporate strategies for dealing with them, adapting to new developments and building in capacity for taking advantage of new opportunities. The objective of using this adaptive approach is to realize a Master Plan robust across many futures, so that the port can meet the requirements of its stakeholders during its entire lifetime. This paper presents the first step in an ongoing research project sponsored by Port Authority of Rotterdam towards this objective