How to Explore and Manage the Future? Formal Model Analysis for Complex Issues under Deep Uncertainty

Formal Model Analysis (FMA) covers a group of methods and techniques to study structurebehaviour relations in best-estimate models. That is, FMA aims to identify the structural causes for the particular dynamics of a single best-estimate model. Under deep uncertainty, the notion of a best-estimate model is however troublesome. Then Exploratory Modelling and Analysis (EMA) can be used to handle deep uncertainty. Through EMA, an ensemble of models is created and analysed. This paper argues that FMA can strengthen EMA by assisting in generating plausible dynamics, exploring and analysing future worlds, identifying plausible policy levers and exploring and comparing various policy options under deep uncertainty. The generation of plausible dynamics is facilitated by deliberately changing model structures that have a large effect on the model behaviour. The other three ways of strengthening EMA rely on identifying the model structure that determines desired or non-desired model behaviours. We illustrate the combination of EMA and FMA using Ford’s Loop Deactivation Method to explore and analyse the behaviours generated by a generic model of the scarcity of minerals and metals