Nederlandse consumptie en energiegebruik in 2030, een verkennende basis van twee lange termijn scenario's

Major issues in the Dutch fourth National Environmental Policy Plan are sustainability and quality of life. The energy requirement for consumption tripled between 1948 and 1996. In this period no significant trends towards a lower energy intensity were found and there is no indication of dematerialisation of consumption patterns. Between 1995 and 2030 private expenditures will increase by 120% to 180% per person. In 1995 the energy requirement per person was 103 GJ. Between 1995 and 2030 the energy requirement per person due to private consumption will increase by 30% to 60%. If the growth of the population is also included, this increase will be 54% to 75% in 35 years time. In 1995 the total energy requirement of all Dutch inhabitants, including collective consumtion was 1927 GJ. In 2030 this will be 3000-3400 GJ. the energy intensity from private consumption in 1995 was 5.5 MJ per Dutch guilder. In 2030 the energy intensity will be 40% lower, a decrease of 1.5% per year. This indicates a decoupling of growth in consumption from the energy requirement for consumption (dematerialisation) brought about by autonomous efficiency improvements in household appliances and the supply sectors, and autonomous changes in the consumption pattern