Modellering van de risico's van blootstelling aan pathogene micro-organismen via voedsel, dieren en water. Een definitiestudie

This definition study was set up to guide future research by the modelling group of the Microbiological Laboratory for Health Protection (MGB) at the National Institute of Public Health and the Environment in the Netherlands. The mission of the group is to make quantitative estimations of the public health risk of pathogenic micro-organisms in water, food and animals. Primary tasks are to develop and apply mathematical models, obtain and integrate system knowledge and data, participate in experimental and observational research and advise policy makers on the effectiveness of risk-reducing measures. The research was spread over five research fields: Animal, Food, Water & Land, Man and Public Health. Research fields are described, along with future approaches to them and will be coordinated on the basis of agreements on limits to and interactions between these fields. Modelling is an essential component of the overall MGB strategy of integrated risk assessment with effect modelling at individual and population level as an endpoint. The major modelling research areas of the recent past (bacterial zoonoses, protozoa and viruses in water, dose response and public health effects) will be maintained, while attempting to limit the number of micro-organisms to be investigated. Modelling techniques cannot be chosen a priori, as these will be determined by the specific research objective and data availability. Stochastic and mechanistic models are preferred. The information needs are described per research field and modelling is comfirmed as an information-intensive activity with a multidisciplinary approach