Vier scenario's van het landgebruik in 2030. Achtergrondrapport bij de Nationale Natuurverkenning 2, 2000 - 2030

The National Nature Outlook 2 examines the effects of future developments in society on nature and landscape by means of four scenarios. These scenarios describe the development of Dutch society from the viewpoint of two different contradictory trends: 'globalisation versus regionalisation' and 'individualisation versus co-operation' Here, we describe the spatial quantification of these four scenarios into four maps for land use in 2030 using the Environment Explorer and the Land Use Scanner. These land-use maps form the basis for subsequent emission, distribution and effect analyses. The four scenarios of the National Nature Outlook 2 have been converted to future land-use using the present land-use and the developments in the various land-use functions according to the scenarios. Present land use is based on 'Bodemstatistiek' (Soil statistics) 1996 produced by Statistics Netherlands. The developments of residential and work-sites are based on the so-called 'Trend variant', developed by the Environmental and Nature Policy Assessment agencies to test the Fifth Report on Spatial Planning against the ecological effects. For nature, the increase in total area and the extent of habitat fragmentation varies among the four scenarios. The agricultural sector will also have to make space to accommodate the growth of urban and nature areas. In the operation of the various land-use functions choices have been made in: the growth in demand of the function up to 2030; regional distribution of the demand in space; interpretation of spatial restrictive policies; cal suitability and the spatial allocation behaviour of the function. The spatial quantification has resulted in four maps on land use for 2030. In essence, the principles and assumptions in the quantification of the scenarios define these maps. The maps have been used to characterise the potential effects of the four scenarios on natural and culturally valuable landscapes and reserves